Or so says Ipsos-Reid pollster Darrel Bricker.
Just got out of a presentation from Bricker and he made a convincing case that the election is over.
The Tories will win. They will likely win a strong minority.
In fact, says Bricker, the election was actually decided two weeks ago when the Tories took a big 10 point lead and never looked back.
And unlike other pollsters who claim the race is tightening, Bricker’s numbers indicate the Tories have maintained their lead for the last two weeks.
It hasn’t wavered a bit.
The turning point?
It was the tragic shooting in downtown Toronto on the Boxing Day weekend.
Prime Minister Paul Martin’s response was to promise to build more playgrounds and youth centres. Stephen Harper promised to get tough on crime.
Ontarians – in the suburbs at least – liked Harper’s answer better.
Here’s Bricker’s seat breakdown:
Tories: 149-153
Liberals – 64-68
NDP – 29-33
Bloc - 57-61
In “voter-rich” Ontario, Bricker says the Tories will win 45-47 seats outside the GTA plus a couple of more in the GTA.
Now let’s see if the voters agree with Bricker
Update:
Just to be a little more specific and to help the numbers add up, Bricker predicts the Tories will win 11-13 seats in the GTA, at least according to my scribbled notes which I can now barely read.
Update 2: You can now get all the scoop on this poll here.
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9 comments:
What do you consider "in the GTA"? The 905 is in or out the GTA? Places like Newmarket, or Mississauga?
We live in the 905 Kingdom and we are going Tory !
If those who live in the GTA [ Toronto ] are so foolish that they want to exclude themselves from the next Government ...so be it .
They have been ignored and lied to by the Liberals for 12 years ...I guess they want more of the same .
Sad !
They prefer a Liberal " leader " from Quebec to a Conservative leader born in Toronto .
Now that is scary !
blessings
www.theinfozone.net has an editorial on the turning point of the election.
It was when Paul Martin blustered about fighting separatists during the debate.
Take a look.
TIZ
On the SES poll it showed Paul was in 4th place in the catagory of "Who would make the best and most trusted Prime Minister" , Martin thought he came in first until Harper pointed out he had the chart upside down!
Liberal MP tells Canadian veteran to leave Canada.
The arrogance is winning out over the frustration for the Liberals.
The main stream media isn't covering this so it is up to everyone to pass on the news.
Ipsos was wrong last election, so lets wait and see. A Tory win is the most likely outcome, but pollsters have gotten elections wrong before i.e. Ontario 1990, Britain 1992.
I have heard so many different descriptions from so many people in this election!
I can't remember them all at one time; can't we just agree that this campaign was a Liberal disaster and that Paul Martin is far and away the worst Prime Minister in Canadian history?
Can't we avoid the extremes of reasonable discussion and just find some easily identifiable common ground?
This is funny.
So I leave a post on Jason Cherniak's blog on how I believe Paul Martin was a bad (Canada's worst) Prime Minister because he is SELFISH and put his own interests before himself and that of his party.
Then I find a Toronto Star article that says the same thing an hour later:
"Voters accept that politicians will say almost anything to get elected. But prime ministers are diminished when they make national interests subservient to partisan advantage. That's now a recognizable Martin trait. Just as he sacrificed the party to capture its leadership, Martin twice made the country's priorities second to his own at critical times."
Then I leave this post about everyone and his dog knowing what the worst part of the Martin campaign was except that there are so many different opinions on this you can't keep them straight and a couple hours later, find another Toronto Star article today that opens like this:
"Everyone knows the moment when it went so wrong for Paul Martin. It's just that every moment is different."
This is just too funny. The Toronto Star is a right-wing rag, I tell you.
After Monday ALL CANADIANS are the true winners. In fact, voters will be the big winners with Harper in the driver's seat because after 12 years of arrogant liberals, Canadians will finally get their own "entitlement" to their "entitlements"....a government they can trust and a decisive leader.
We deserve it!
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