Or so says Ipsos-Reid pollster Darrel Bricker.
Just got out of a presentation from Bricker and he made a convincing case that the election is over.
The Tories will win. They will likely win a strong minority.
In fact, says Bricker, the election was actually decided two weeks ago when the Tories took a big 10 point lead and never looked back.
And unlike other pollsters who claim the race is tightening, Bricker’s numbers indicate the Tories have maintained their lead for the last two weeks.
It hasn’t wavered a bit.
The turning point?
It was the tragic shooting in downtown Toronto on the Boxing Day weekend.
Prime Minister Paul Martin’s response was to promise to build more playgrounds and youth centres. Stephen Harper promised to get tough on crime.
Ontarians – in the suburbs at least – liked Harper’s answer better.
Here’s Bricker’s seat breakdown:
Liberals – 64-68
NDP – 29-33
Bloc - 57-61
In “voter-rich” Ontario, Bricker says the Tories will win 45-47 seats outside the GTA plus a couple of more in the GTA.
Now let’s see if the voters agree with Bricker
Just to be a little more specific and to help the numbers add up, Bricker predicts the Tories will win 11-13 seats in the GTA, at least according to my scribbled notes which I can now barely read.
Update 2: You can now get all the scoop on this poll here.