Friday, January 20, 2006

Tories Will Win Election

Or so says Ipsos-Reid pollster Darrel Bricker.

Just got out of a presentation from Bricker and he made a convincing case that the election is over.

The Tories will win. They will likely win a strong minority.

In fact, says Bricker, the election was actually decided two weeks ago when the Tories took a big 10 point lead and never looked back.

And unlike other pollsters who claim the race is tightening, Bricker’s numbers indicate the Tories have maintained their lead for the last two weeks.

It hasn’t wavered a bit.

The turning point?

It was the tragic shooting in downtown Toronto on the Boxing Day weekend.

Prime Minister Paul Martin’s response was to promise to build more playgrounds and youth centres. Stephen Harper promised to get tough on crime.

Ontarians – in the suburbs at least – liked Harper’s answer better.

Here’s Bricker’s seat breakdown:

Tories: 149-153

Liberals – 64-68

NDP – 29-33

Bloc - 57-61

In “voter-rich” Ontario, Bricker says the Tories will win 45-47 seats outside the GTA plus a couple of more in the GTA.

Now let’s see if the voters agree with Bricker

Update:

Just to be a little more specific and to help the numbers add up, Bricker predicts the Tories will win 11-13 seats in the GTA, at least according to my scribbled notes which I can now barely read.

Update 2: You can now get all the scoop on this poll here.

12 comments:

Anonymous said...

What do you consider "in the GTA"? The 905 is in or out the GTA? Places like Newmarket, or Mississauga?

Ed Hardison said...

We live in the 905 Kingdom and we are going Tory !
If those who live in the GTA [ Toronto ] are so foolish that they want to exclude themselves from the next Government ...so be it .
They have been ignored and lied to by the Liberals for 12 years ...I guess they want more of the same .
Sad !
They prefer a Liberal " leader " from Quebec to a Conservative leader born in Toronto .
Now that is scary !
blessings

TIZreporter said...

www.theinfozone.net has an editorial on the turning point of the election.

It was when Paul Martin blustered about fighting separatists during the debate.

Take a look.

TIZ

Anonymous said...

On the SES poll it showed Paul was in 4th place in the catagory of "Who would make the best and most trusted Prime Minister" , Martin thought he came in first until Harper pointed out he had the chart upside down!

Anonymous said...

Liberal MP tells Canadian veteran to leave Canada.

The arrogance is winning out over the frustration for the Liberals.

The main stream media isn't covering this so it is up to everyone to pass on the news.

The Infozone said...

The Infozone reports, "Elections Canada has sent out a team of troubleshooters from Ottawa to sort out irregularities with the Edmonton Centre voter registration list."

"There could be hundreds of people on the revised voters list released last week whose addresses are offices, post boxes, storage yards, or don't exist at all, according to Conservative research."

"We need to tighten up the system. Those opportunities shouldn't be there," Tory candidate Laurie Hawn said Thursday."

"Frankly, I think the Iraqi and Afghani practice of dipping your finger in an ink-well (to identify people who have voted) would be pretty simple."

The law requires Canadians to vote in the riding where they have their principal home."

But Elections Canada spokeswoman Andrea Marantz said any trouble in the riding has been cleared up following "substantial changes" to the final voters list put out Thursday night."

"This work was aided by a group of Ottawa "troubleshooters," who are available where needed across the country, she said."

"They're still at work in Edmonton Centre, although Marantz didn't know when they started or why they became involved."

"There were buildings that had post office boxes in them. Most of them were identified and have been removed from the list."

"There are still people shown living at locations that are actually offices, but staff know who they are, she said."

If the Liberals are willing to allow this, in Edmonton Centre, where else are these kinds of frauds and foolish activities going on?

Maybe when Martin talked about the tide coming, it was a tide of double and triple voters?

TIZ

Miles Lunn said...

Ipsos was wrong last election, so lets wait and see. A Tory win is the most likely outcome, but pollsters have gotten elections wrong before i.e. Ontario 1990, Britain 1992.

Chris from Victoria, BC said...

I have heard so many different descriptions from so many people in this election!

I can't remember them all at one time; can't we just agree that this campaign was a Liberal disaster and that Paul Martin is far and away the worst Prime Minister in Canadian history?

Can't we avoid the extremes of reasonable discussion and just find some easily identifiable common ground?

Chris from Victoria, BC said...

This is funny.

So I leave a post on Jason Cherniak's blog on how I believe Paul Martin was a bad (Canada's worst) Prime Minister because he is SELFISH and put his own interests before himself and that of his party.

Then I find a Toronto Star article that says the same thing an hour later:

"Voters accept that politicians will say almost anything to get elected. But prime ministers are diminished when they make national interests subservient to partisan advantage. That's now a recognizable Martin trait. Just as he sacrificed the party to capture its leadership, Martin twice made the country's priorities second to his own at critical times."

Then I leave this post about everyone and his dog knowing what the worst part of the Martin campaign was except that there are so many different opinions on this you can't keep them straight and a couple hours later, find another Toronto Star article today that opens like this:

"Everyone knows the moment when it went so wrong for Paul Martin. It's just that every moment is different."

This is just too funny. The Toronto Star is a right-wing rag, I tell you.

Chris from Victoria, BC said...

lol - Doh! Okay it isn't two different ones (it's late; I'm tired; it's all Jean Chretien's people's fault), it's the same beautiful article, 'Martin damaged beyond repair' by James Travers of the Toronto Star.

Night everyone. Have a great weekend and election!

Anonymous said...

After Monday ALL CANADIANS are the true winners. In fact, voters will be the big winners with Harper in the driver's seat because after 12 years of arrogant liberals, Canadians will finally get their own "entitlement" to their "entitlements"....a government they can trust and a decisive leader.

We deserve it!

The Infozone said...

A quiet story, in the main-stream media has been the impact of the Liberal gag laws.

www.theinfozone.net/salw1.html is reporting on how third-party advertisers have saved their ammo until the last of the campaign to fire at the Liberals.

TIZ