Monday, October 06, 2008

Puzzling Polls

The latest polls seem to indicate the federal election is tightening up a bit.

This might actually be good news for the Conservatives.

Recall that in the last two elections they went into the final week of the campaign riding high in the polls only to come plummeting down on election day.

Maybe the reverse will happen this time.

15 comments:

Ben (The Tiger) said...

That or they could lose this election...

Lore_Weaver said...

Yes, Conservatives could lose. In fact, we could lose the election and still win the popular vote.

That'd be a sad day for our democracy.

That and Dion could be compared to George W. Bush in that he won with less of the vote than Harper.

32% or less for Conservatives
28% or more for Liberals
-----
Liberal Minority win, with likely enough NDP to form a coalition Majority.

A Dark, nail biting week approaches.

Anonymous said...

I doubt he will lose.There are some people that are closet Conservatives. I am not one of them.I think you will find the liberals are going to lose many seats.Dion is so very weak.

Joanne (True Blue) said...

I'm just trying to imagine one of the opposition parties in power, with their tax increases and such. I really can't see that working at all.

Dennis said...

At this stage, the most likely outcome is not a Liberal victory, but a somewhat stronger Conservative minority.

However, its becoming increasingly apparent that the left wing vote is very fractured. There are far too many left-of-center parties in this election for their own good. The NDP and the Greens, for instance, are essentially the same party. What role could vote-splitting play in increasing Tory fortunes? This is a topic that the MSM is avoiding like the plague.

If Harper does achieve a majority, there may still a big problem awaiting him: he'll be beholden to a handful of Quebec MP's who will demand trainloads of loot for Quebec interests or else they will bolt to the Bloq.

At least with a minority, Harper will know ahead of time where everyone's loyalties lie.

jckirlan said...

One truely would have to be mad to vote for any of the 3 opposition parties in this election. But no Liberal ever lost a seat underetimating the stupidity of Canadians.

Anonymous said...

My big fear of course is that people will assume it will be okay for the Conservatives and not show up to vote.

Or people who know their riding will go to the Conservatives won't show up and limit some of that unethical campaign finance act dough next time around!

nbt said...

A lot of people on the Liberal side have been mocking Harper and his whole persona as a political genius. They've also been making fun of the fact that people in the conservative tent have been over-promoting their leaders abilities as a political chess player; a game so complex, so intricate, they say, that a mere mortal has no chance of understanding it.

It's interesting they all say that, but then when I got thinking (scary thought), I thought, could Harper really be that smart? The answer is yes kiddies he can.

Anyway, since there has been a lot of talk of how this will all end on the 14th, I thought I would offer up my conspiracy theory on why Harper would purposely want to govern out of a small minority for some time to come (it's in four parts): 1.) The other alternative is a clear majority. Why would he not want this? Well, first, we all know what happens to Tory leader's after forming a huge majority. They become seriously unpopular with the electorate and, in the end, are relegated back to Opposition for quite sometime. This does nothing for someone (like Harper) who wants to shift the country's ethos to a more conservative view, and at a snails pace to boot. 2.) With a small minority he is able to do what he has always done, control his caucus and cabinet with an iron grip. Remember Mulroney in 84? His cabinet was gaffe prone b/c he could not put the reigns on that many MPs, simple as that. 3.) A minority conservative government would not signal a need for clear renewal on the Liberal's side since they were expecting to be wiped out (thus, triggering Dion to stay on past his best before date). 4.) This one's a big stretch, I know, but by squeaking into power, there's a good chance that Liberals will win seats in the maritimes, which means, Central Nova is in play for the Greens (since there is no Liberal candidate). A scenario that we all know Harper would like to see b/c it would rid the party of the last (non-Alliance) threat to his leadership. In other words, it would be impossible to remove him once Mackay is gone.

So like it or not, in the end, we would be left with a government that is in a bargaining position and not big, powerful or scary enough to issue a scary right-wing wrath of Khan on Canadians. (wink, wink PPG)

Anyway, Harper would have a clear mandate to move forward incrementally, like he has always done, keep weak political opponents intact (and strong one's at arms length) while passing small pieces of legislation year-by-year.

If you're the media, this should be the new scary!! lol

Anonymous said...

I think Conservatives are going to show up, those with any sense, and cents! will do so.All this spending, I was watching the LBC today.My goodness. Layton was all tax and spend, Dion still looking weak, never mentioned the green shift.Who muzzled him? Rae? oh no. Rae was after the NDP today.Don not talking about the green shaft, is worse than Dion talking about it.

Greg said...

Too bad we don't have an electoral system in which popular vote does count, eh?

Iain G. Foulds said...

... NBT... that's some pretty fine thinking. You should get your own blog.

Anonymous said...

Not much on the news about Paul mMrtins new book.Excerpts were released, and he got upset.Poor dear,After all, it isn't like Joe Public doesn't know that there is in house fighting , but it just came out at such a baD time Funny the only media to present it has been the ctv, albeit briefly!

Anonymous said...

Gerry,
If latest Liberal manipulation blows before elections it might spell the end of Liberal Party of Canada.

Visit:
http://www.bloggingtories.ca/forums/post45906.html#45906

Federal elections - final stretch - massive manipulation.

Miles Lunn said...

The Tories could indeed lose. If it is like 1988, then they should recover and win a comfortable minority. But if like the last two elections, they will continue their downward spiral and lose. Also a lot will depend on how many Green and NDP votes switch to the Liberals at the last minute. This could play a big factor in the final results.

nbt said...

Oh, and another thing. The Tories have done themselves a disservice by painting Dion as a weak and inept leader.

Because now, nobody out there will believe he is capable of manipulation, negative politics or underhanded schemes.

In other words, he is a very dangerous force now that he has peeled himself off the mat as an incompetent. Very dangerous, indeed.

Hopefully someone in the war room has the gonads to tell their boss his made at home political strategies aren't working. I know his caucus doesn't.