Friday, March 30, 2007

No Spring Vote

The Quebec election results, the big-spending budget and some interesting polls have all fed speculation that an election is imminent

Well a few weeks ago, I said there would be no Spring election and I still stand by those words.

It would just be too much of a risk for the Tories to go right now.

Also, the government faces the problem engineering of its own downfall, which as journalist/author Paul Tuns notes is no easy task given the dynamics of the House these days.

Says Paul: "It just seems improbable that no matter how much Harper wants an election that the other parties would co-operate with his plan to attain a Conservative majority."

And if we don't have an election in the Spring, it's extremely unlikely there will be one in the Fall.

So my prediction: We go to the polls in Spring of '08.

Remember you heard it here first.


Brian said...

So my prediction: We go to the polls in Spring of '08.

Remember you heard it here first.

I read it here first, but I wrote it here on Monday:

Look, the Bloc is not going to go back to the same supporters who just ran and financed a Provincial election for the PQ, and say lets do it again. Harper has at least a year leeway.

On budget day, Gilles Duceppe was on CBC, and said, Mr. Dion and Mr. Layton would be in a real pickle if the Bloc didn't support the budget. After the Quebec election results, Mr. Duceppe would also be in a real pickle if he didn't support the budget.

I kept wondering if I was the only one who saw these dynamics, glass to have "one of the top five political minds" agree with me.

Gerry Nicholls said...

Brian, keep up with this kind of excellent political analysis and you will find yourself moving up the Gerry Nicholls Political Mind standings.