The Quebec election results, the big-spending budget and some interesting polls have all fed speculation that an election is imminent
Well a few weeks ago, I said there would be no Spring election and I still stand by those words.
It would just be too much of a risk for the Tories to go right now.
Also, the government faces the problem engineering of its own downfall, which as journalist/author Paul Tuns notes is no easy task given the dynamics of the House these days.
Says Paul: "It just seems improbable that no matter how much Harper wants an election that the other parties would co-operate with his plan to attain a Conservative majority."
And if we don't have an election in the Spring, it's extremely unlikely there will be one in the Fall.
So my prediction: We go to the polls in Spring of '08.
Remember you heard it here first.
About Me
- Gerry Nicholls
- Gerry Nicholls is a communications consultant and writer who has been called a “political warrior” a “brilliant strategist” and one of the “canniest political observers in Canada.” He has worked as a consultant in both the United States and Canada and was formerly a senior officer in the National Citizens Coalition. A regular columnist with the Ottawa Hill Times, his work has also appeared in the Globe and Mail, the National Post and in the Sun Media chain; and he has appeared on countless TV and radio public affairs programs. He is the author of the book, Loyal to the Core, Harper, Me and the NCC.
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- Modesty Forbids
- American Frontrunners Slowing Down
- No Spring Vote
- What's Going on in Quebec?
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- Flaherty No Ronald Reagan
- Another 300 Comment
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- Who's Tory Now?
- Ontario Budget Blues
- Good Riddance to Bill 257
- Blackout Ruling Skewered
- More Budget talk
- Discussing the Budget with Duffy
- Budget Reaction (It's Bad)
- Budget Blues
- Budget Fun
- Me on CBC
- Persian Protests
- Reaction to SCC Ruling
- Media Update
- Blackout Ruling a Disgrace
- Spending Spree Hypocrisy
- Supreme Court To Rule on Blackout Law
- United Left Isn't Right
- Forget the Election Talk
- Kyoto is just for Starters
- Right Online Thinking
- Maybe Xerxes is Supposed to be Bush
- Liberals Should Have Listened to Me
- Go Tell the Spartans, I won't See This Movie
- Taking out the Trash
- Talking Libertarianism in Montreal
- The Lively Seven
- Movie Posters
- Plato to NATO
- Pork and Free Speech
- Lamb Chops
- Quebec's Political Shift
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- A Great Man's Legacy
- Gerry's Most UnExcellent Adventure
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2 comments:
So my prediction: We go to the polls in Spring of '08.
Remember you heard it here first.
I read it here first, but I wrote it here on Monday:
Look, the Bloc is not going to go back to the same supporters who just ran and financed a Provincial election for the PQ, and say lets do it again. Harper has at least a year leeway.
On budget day, Gilles Duceppe was on CBC, and said, Mr. Dion and Mr. Layton would be in a real pickle if the Bloc didn't support the budget. After the Quebec election results, Mr. Duceppe would also be in a real pickle if he didn't support the budget.
I kept wondering if I was the only one who saw these dynamics, glass to have "one of the top five political minds" agree with me.
Brian, keep up with this kind of excellent political analysis and you will find yourself moving up the Gerry Nicholls Political Mind standings.
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