More and more political pundits are coming to the conclusion that we will have a federal election either in late spring or early summer.
And certainly the signs are out there: the anti-Liberal attack ads, the "pre-election" spending spree, the Tory candidate "boot camp".
So I am going out on a limb, swimming against the tide, defying convetional wisdom, when I say confidently that there will not be a federal election in 2007 -- unless one is forced by the Opposition.
Why do I say that?
Because while Stephen Harper will take a calculated risk from time to time, he is most definitely not a gambler.
And holding an election this spring/summer would be a gamble.
Yes, Liberal leader Stephane Dion has been a bit of a bust, but the polling numbers do not yet indicate the Tories would win a majority.
So why risk a vote?
If Harper can only win another minority, his position will be weakened both inside and outside the party.
That's why he will hold off forcing an election until the cards are more in his favour.
So relax, it's going to be a calm summer.