Saturday, May 26, 2007

Gunter on the Tory Drop

Lorne Gunter had an excellent column in the Edmonton Journal a couple of days ago.

It concerned the Conservative Party's recent drop in the polls and what caused it.

And what caused it argues Gunter is that the core support for the Tories is eroding.

Writes Gunter:

"The Conservatives were running a consistent six to 10 points ahead of the Liberals in national opinion polls before their big-spending budget and green plan came out. Now they are effectively tied with Stephane Dion and his crew. Hmm. Do you think there's a connection maybe? When Stephen Harper and his cabinet were acting like Conservatives they had a comfortable lead in the polls, but the moment they started governing like Liberals, their support cooled."

Yes, exactly


Sapere Aude said...

I love revisionist history. The 'high-spending budget ruined the Conservatives' argument is a flawed 'post hoc, ergo prompter hoc' one. The budget, if you recall, put Tory polling numbers up around 40- majority territory. Remember all the ruminating about how they were in Chretien majority territory? That was AFTER the budget. The budget didn't cause the decline and malaise, the twin shield issue storms of the environment, and Afghanistan (and the percieved mis-management of both), brought down the numbers. I'm sick of short-sighted conservatives using the budget to justify a flawed point. The budget was a contributor to pushing Tory numbers up around 40, it served its purpose, temporarily of course.

Post hoc, ergo, prompter hoc.

rondi said...

Sapere Aude, I think you're right in your general point, but -- with due respect -- it is "post hoc, ergo propter hoc," NOT "post hoc, ergo prompter hoc."

Sapere Aude said...

My mistake. I'll make sure my logical fallacies are spelled correctly next time.

Gerry Nicholls said...

Caesar si viveret, ad remum dareris, which means: If Caesar were alive, you'd be chained to an oar.

Janet said...

sapere aude - I think Gunter did a great job of addressing your point in his subsequent column.