Wednesday, February 21, 2007

A word (or two) about all those polls

The media and a lot of Conservative sympathizers are going ga ga over all these polls which seem to show Liberal leader Stephane Dion is in a free fall.

The latest is an Ipsos Reid poll which indicates Dion actually ranks behind Stephen Harper and Jack Layton when it comes who Canadians think would make the best Prime Minister.

Of course, Reid has been way off before, but that's not important.

What's important is such polls give the perception that Dion's leadership is in trouble.

And this perception will set in motion an inevitable dynamic which will work to further undermine Dion.

For one thing, these bad poll numbers will force the media to explain to us why Dion is in trouble.

Now they don't really have a clue but since this is something they can't admit, they will have to come up with some sort of explanation.

So the very same guys who a few months ago were fawning all over Dion's intelligence and charm, will now be informing us that he is actually stiff and indecisive.

In other words, the media smell blood in the water and this will induce a feeding frenzy. (Note the media's desire to eat a politician alive overcomes whatever political bias they may have.)

This bad coverage in turn will lead to more bad poll numbers, which will lead to more bad press.

So this is indeed all good for the Conservatives.

But there is also some bad news for them.

A recent Decima poll for instance, indicates Quebec voters are leaving the Bloc and going over to the Liberals.

If that trend continues it could spell real trouble for the Tories come election time.

This may sound ironic or even treasonous, but for the Conservatives to win a majority the Bloc Quebecois must be strong.


Anonymous said...

That's why I'm not at all betting on a spring election. I think that if Harper waits until the fall, after the Ontario election he has the luxury of playing with THAT dynamic and all that goes with it.

Miles Lunn said...

Dion is largely unknown to Canadians so his numbers could really go either way just depending on how the campaign goes. Gordon Campbell, Dalton McGuinty, Jean Chretien, and Stephen Harper all had similiar numbers when they first became leaders of their respective parties and all of them eventually went on to win.

Anonymous said...

Give it up Miles. The "Dion as unknown" excuse is getting old. He's been in government long enough to be connected to the Librano scandals. Perhaps what we're seeing from Dion is simply more of the same, and Canadians don't like it.

Why is it that Iggy in Question Period appears to be the leader of the opposition, given his ability to frame questions and rally his ideas?

Anonymous said...

Why not admit that you guys picked the wrong guy to lead your party Mr. Lunn?

Miles Lunn said...

Anonymous - If Dion wins the next election or the election after, will you still be saying the same thing. If you guys want to be cocky, go ahead, but this is what will cost you the election.

BBS said...

The whole scenario sounds strangely familiar...

Anonymous said...

Miles - you do not know what you speak about. Dion will NEVER be PM. The self-destruction will continue all from within your own party.

Miles Lunn said...

Anonymous - Think what you want, but with the Liberals being nearly tied in the polls, unless you have some psychic powers (which I doubt you do) you have no way of knowing that Stephane Dion will never be PM.