Friday, March 30, 2007
American Frontrunners Slowing Down
For all you out there who are interested in American politics I just got a news release from McLaughlin and Associates, which details a recent poll they have conducted.
Here it is:
Upon comparison of our latest national poll results with the results of our November, 2006 post-election survey, it appears that the early start to the Presidential campaign has weakened the popularity of the presumed frontrunners.
-- Hillary Clinton now has a net unfavorable rating: 42%, favorable, 48% unfavorable.
-- John McCain’s net popularity has fallen 31 points from a favorable rating of 61% favorable, 21% unfavorable; to only 43% favorable while his unfavorable rating increased to 34%.
-- Rudy Giuliani has had similar popular decline where his net rating fell 35 points from a 63% favorable rating, 17% unfavorable rating; to 46% favorable, 35% unfavorable.
-- Although Mitt Romney is still not as well known, he has slipped from an overall positive rating to a net negative rating from favorable 17%, unfavorable 12%; to 20% favorable and 24% unfavorable.
-- In November we did not ask about Barack Obama’s favorable rating (although that poll did capture his close second place standing behind Senator Clinton on the ballot). Senator Obama appears to have the best ratio of positives to negatives among the current frontrunners: favorable 47%, unfavorable 23%.
Examining the decline of popularity among the frontrunners partisan polarization is the leading reason for the decline. However, there is also erosion within each candidate’s own political party. It seems that the early start to the primary campaign is already taking a toll on the frontrunners and there is currently opportunity for challengers.
In the Democratic primary, Hillary Clinton retains her lead over Barack Obama:
Democrats and Independents: Hillary Clinton: 26% Barack Obama: 18% Al Gore: 11% John Edwards: 11%
Democrats only: Hillary Clinton: 31% Barack Obama: 20% Al Gore: 12% John Edwards: 12%
However, Senator Obama remains strong with liberal Democrats (Clinton 30%, Obama 24%) and has taken the lead among African-Americans (Obama 31%, Clinton 22%).
Since November, in the Republican primary for President, while John McCain has fallen, Rudy Giuliani has assumed the lead:
Republicans and Independents: Rudy Giuliani: 29% John McCain: 19% Newt Gingrich: 7% Fred Thompson: 6%
Mitt Romney: 5%
Republicans only: Rudy Giuliani: 30% John McCain: 20% Newt Gingrich: 10% Fred Thompson: 8%
Mitt Romney: 5%
However, among the conservative Republicans who account for nearly two-thirds of their party’s primary voters, there appears to be jockeying for a conservative challenger to emerge. Former Speaker Newt Gingrich (11%), Senator Fred Thompson (9%), and Mitt Romney (7%) show significant support. It means that one strong conservative challenger could emerge to be a frontrunner.
Regarding the potential general election contests among the frontrunners, both Mayor Giuliani and Senator McCain, have fallen from decisive leads to much closer races against Hillary Clinton:
McCain: 44%
Clinton: 38%
Giuliani: 42%
Clinton: 40%
There is now a significant level of undecided voters. Against Barack Obama, the undecided vote is even larger.
McCain: 38%
Obama: 39%
Giuliani: 40%
Obama: 38%
Here it is:
Upon comparison of our latest national poll results with the results of our November, 2006 post-election survey, it appears that the early start to the Presidential campaign has weakened the popularity of the presumed frontrunners.
-- Hillary Clinton now has a net unfavorable rating: 42%, favorable, 48% unfavorable.
-- John McCain’s net popularity has fallen 31 points from a favorable rating of 61% favorable, 21% unfavorable; to only 43% favorable while his unfavorable rating increased to 34%.
-- Rudy Giuliani has had similar popular decline where his net rating fell 35 points from a 63% favorable rating, 17% unfavorable rating; to 46% favorable, 35% unfavorable.
-- Although Mitt Romney is still not as well known, he has slipped from an overall positive rating to a net negative rating from favorable 17%, unfavorable 12%; to 20% favorable and 24% unfavorable.
-- In November we did not ask about Barack Obama’s favorable rating (although that poll did capture his close second place standing behind Senator Clinton on the ballot). Senator Obama appears to have the best ratio of positives to negatives among the current frontrunners: favorable 47%, unfavorable 23%.
Examining the decline of popularity among the frontrunners partisan polarization is the leading reason for the decline. However, there is also erosion within each candidate’s own political party. It seems that the early start to the primary campaign is already taking a toll on the frontrunners and there is currently opportunity for challengers.
In the Democratic primary, Hillary Clinton retains her lead over Barack Obama:
Democrats and Independents: Hillary Clinton: 26% Barack Obama: 18% Al Gore: 11% John Edwards: 11%
Democrats only: Hillary Clinton: 31% Barack Obama: 20% Al Gore: 12% John Edwards: 12%
However, Senator Obama remains strong with liberal Democrats (Clinton 30%, Obama 24%) and has taken the lead among African-Americans (Obama 31%, Clinton 22%).
Since November, in the Republican primary for President, while John McCain has fallen, Rudy Giuliani has assumed the lead:
Republicans and Independents: Rudy Giuliani: 29% John McCain: 19% Newt Gingrich: 7% Fred Thompson: 6%
Mitt Romney: 5%
Republicans only: Rudy Giuliani: 30% John McCain: 20% Newt Gingrich: 10% Fred Thompson: 8%
Mitt Romney: 5%
However, among the conservative Republicans who account for nearly two-thirds of their party’s primary voters, there appears to be jockeying for a conservative challenger to emerge. Former Speaker Newt Gingrich (11%), Senator Fred Thompson (9%), and Mitt Romney (7%) show significant support. It means that one strong conservative challenger could emerge to be a frontrunner.
Regarding the potential general election contests among the frontrunners, both Mayor Giuliani and Senator McCain, have fallen from decisive leads to much closer races against Hillary Clinton:
McCain: 44%
Clinton: 38%
Giuliani: 42%
Clinton: 40%
There is now a significant level of undecided voters. Against Barack Obama, the undecided vote is even larger.
McCain: 38%
Obama: 39%
Giuliani: 40%
Obama: 38%
No Spring Vote
The Quebec election results, the big-spending budget and some interesting polls have all fed speculation that an election is imminent
Well a few weeks ago, I said there would be no Spring election and I still stand by those words.
It would just be too much of a risk for the Tories to go right now.
Also, the government faces the problem engineering of its own downfall, which as journalist/author Paul Tuns notes is no easy task given the dynamics of the House these days.
Says Paul: "It just seems improbable that no matter how much Harper wants an election that the other parties would co-operate with his plan to attain a Conservative majority."
And if we don't have an election in the Spring, it's extremely unlikely there will be one in the Fall.
So my prediction: We go to the polls in Spring of '08.
Remember you heard it here first.
Well a few weeks ago, I said there would be no Spring election and I still stand by those words.
It would just be too much of a risk for the Tories to go right now.
Also, the government faces the problem engineering of its own downfall, which as journalist/author Paul Tuns notes is no easy task given the dynamics of the House these days.
Says Paul: "It just seems improbable that no matter how much Harper wants an election that the other parties would co-operate with his plan to attain a Conservative majority."
And if we don't have an election in the Spring, it's extremely unlikely there will be one in the Fall.
So my prediction: We go to the polls in Spring of '08.
Remember you heard it here first.
Thursday, March 29, 2007
What's Going on in Quebec?
Lots of analysis is going on in the media these days as to what's wrong with the Parti Quebecois and more generally with the separatist movement in Quebec.
My view?
Well it seems to me the problem with the separatist political movement in Quebec isn't that it's separatist, but that it's Marxist.
In other words, both the PQ and the Bloc Quebecois are pushing a tired, left-wing agenda that's falling out of touch with the realities of the modern world.
The Quebecois are ready to move on.
For another analysis on what the Quebec election results mean politically, check out this excellent column by Beryl Wajsman.
I met Beryl on a recent trip to Montreal and have had appeared on his radio show -- The Last Angry Man -- and I can tell you he is a savvy political thinker as well as a fascinating conversationalist.
On the Quebec election he writes:
"Dumont talked about the hopes of working people, the elderly and young families trying to make ends meet on constricting incomes and trying to make their dreams realities despite restrictive rule. The irony was not lost on the dozen or so reporters I was with. The 'left-wing' Boisclair played the exclusionary ethnic card of his cultural “uberclass”. The supposedly 'right-wing' Dumont championed the interests of an economic underclass. Dumont raised hopes he dare not betray."
My view?
Well it seems to me the problem with the separatist political movement in Quebec isn't that it's separatist, but that it's Marxist.
In other words, both the PQ and the Bloc Quebecois are pushing a tired, left-wing agenda that's falling out of touch with the realities of the modern world.
The Quebecois are ready to move on.
For another analysis on what the Quebec election results mean politically, check out this excellent column by Beryl Wajsman.
I met Beryl on a recent trip to Montreal and have had appeared on his radio show -- The Last Angry Man -- and I can tell you he is a savvy political thinker as well as a fascinating conversationalist.
On the Quebec election he writes:
"Dumont talked about the hopes of working people, the elderly and young families trying to make ends meet on constricting incomes and trying to make their dreams realities despite restrictive rule. The irony was not lost on the dozen or so reporters I was with. The 'left-wing' Boisclair played the exclusionary ethnic card of his cultural “uberclass”. The supposedly 'right-wing' Dumont championed the interests of an economic underclass. Dumont raised hopes he dare not betray."
Wednesday, March 28, 2007
Bad Liberal Spin
Liberal leader Stephane Dion needs a new spin doctor.
I say that because the Liberal Party spin on the Quebec election is really lame.
Essentially, Dion is denouncing the "intrusion" of Prime Minister Stephen Harper into the campaign, saying the way he linked additional limitations on federal spending powers to the results of the election was "blackmail."
This intervention, says Dion, tightened the race and distanced the Liberal Party from majority support.
Is anybody really going to buy this nonsense?
Seems to me, the majority of Canadians are pretty happy with an election result which relegates the separatists to third place.
And if Harper's "intrusion" helped to bring this about, so much the better.
Perhaps all this is incomprehensible to Dion and the Liberals who seem to think everyone is rooting for Liberal majorities.
I say that because the Liberal Party spin on the Quebec election is really lame.
Essentially, Dion is denouncing the "intrusion" of Prime Minister Stephen Harper into the campaign, saying the way he linked additional limitations on federal spending powers to the results of the election was "blackmail."
This intervention, says Dion, tightened the race and distanced the Liberal Party from majority support.
Is anybody really going to buy this nonsense?
Seems to me, the majority of Canadians are pretty happy with an election result which relegates the separatists to third place.
And if Harper's "intrusion" helped to bring this about, so much the better.
Perhaps all this is incomprehensible to Dion and the Liberals who seem to think everyone is rooting for Liberal majorities.
Tuesday, March 27, 2007
Blackout Ruling
I have a column in today's Calgary Herald, examining the Supreme Court's terrible ruling of a few weeks ago which upheld the election blackout law.
The Cost of Victory
A week before the Quebec election, Prime Minister Stephen Harper poured $3 billion into La Belle Province.
The PM says he did this to end the "fiscal imbalance" but many believe the real goal was to help Jean Charest's Liberals defeat the nasty separatists.
And if that was his goal, it worked --- the $3 billion ensured Charest won 48 seats, which works out to about $63 million per seat.
Good thing, Harper wasn't aiming for a Liberal majority -- that might have bankrupted the country.
Oh and please note, all you folks who think the Green movement is about to reshape our political culture.
The Quebec Green Party won a paltry four percent of the popular vote and no seats, in one of the most pro-environment province's in the country.
Watch for their federal cousins to suffer the same fate in the next national election.
Update:
I modified this posting into a Letter to the Editor, which is published in today's National Post.
The PM says he did this to end the "fiscal imbalance" but many believe the real goal was to help Jean Charest's Liberals defeat the nasty separatists.
And if that was his goal, it worked --- the $3 billion ensured Charest won 48 seats, which works out to about $63 million per seat.
Good thing, Harper wasn't aiming for a Liberal majority -- that might have bankrupted the country.
Oh and please note, all you folks who think the Green movement is about to reshape our political culture.
The Quebec Green Party won a paltry four percent of the popular vote and no seats, in one of the most pro-environment province's in the country.
Watch for their federal cousins to suffer the same fate in the next national election.
Update:
I modified this posting into a Letter to the Editor, which is published in today's National Post.
Monday, March 26, 2007
Flaherty No Ronald Reagan
Check out a column I wrote, which appears in Sun Media papers today.
In it, I suggest the recent federal budget is a signal the Conservatives are heading down the wrong track.
And by that I mean, the Conservatives are ceasing to be conservatives.
In it, I suggest the recent federal budget is a signal the Conservatives are heading down the wrong track.
And by that I mean, the Conservatives are ceasing to be conservatives.
Saturday, March 24, 2007
Another 300 Comment
Last night my son went to see the movie 300.
He loved it giving it a 9.3 out of 10. (He's very precise with his reviews.)
I mention this because it gives me another excuse to talk about the crazy political debate surrounding this movie.
The left wing, politically correct crowd hate it not because it's conservative (which it isn't) but simply because it's not liberal.
Here's how the film's director Zack Snyder responded:
"When someone in a movie says, ‘We’re going to fight for freedom,’ that’s now a dirty word, Europeans totally feel that way. If you mention democracy or freedom, you’re an imperialist or a fascist. That’s crazy to me.”
It's crazy to me too.
H/T Libertas
Friday, March 23, 2007
Election Prediction
Here is my fearless prediction for Monday's Quebec election:
Quebec: $3 billion
Canadian Taxpayers: O
Quebec: $3 billion
Canadian Taxpayers: O
Thursday, March 22, 2007
Who's Tory Now?
If the federal Conservatives keep acting like Liberals, the next thing you know they will be creating their own Sponsorship Program.
Oh wait a minute . . . it seems they are creating their own Sponsorship Program!!
Sigh.
Thanks to Janet Neilson for the tip.
Oh wait a minute . . . it seems they are creating their own Sponsorship Program!!
Sigh.
Thanks to Janet Neilson for the tip.
Ontario Budget Blues
Just got from doing a live interview on CHCH TV about the Ontario budget.
Ahh, live television -- is there anything worse?
First off I had to stand outside in the chilly wind for about an hour in one of those "remote" interviews where you stand staring at a lens, pretending you can see the host. And then the audio keeps going on and off, which makes for some awkard times.
Must have looked real bright standing on the TV screens with a quizzical look on my face.
Mind you, that look might have come from the Ontario budget itself --- which was kind of like a replay of the federal budget -- a few tax cuts sprinkled in with lots of left-wing spending.
The worst part: No tax cuts for the middle class.
I guess Premier Dalton needs the money in case he wants to give himself another big fat pay
raise.
Media Update: Will be talking about the Ontario budget on the Gary Doyle Show at about 12:05 PM EST.
Ahh, live television -- is there anything worse?
First off I had to stand outside in the chilly wind for about an hour in one of those "remote" interviews where you stand staring at a lens, pretending you can see the host. And then the audio keeps going on and off, which makes for some awkard times.
Must have looked real bright standing on the TV screens with a quizzical look on my face.
Mind you, that look might have come from the Ontario budget itself --- which was kind of like a replay of the federal budget -- a few tax cuts sprinkled in with lots of left-wing spending.
The worst part: No tax cuts for the middle class.
I guess Premier Dalton needs the money in case he wants to give himself another big fat pay
raise.
Media Update: Will be talking about the Ontario budget on the Gary Doyle Show at about 12:05 PM EST.
Good Riddance to Bill 257
Well the House of Commons did something right for a change.
Last night MPs voted down Bill C-257, which would have made it a crime for companies to hire replacement workers during a strike.
Simply put this Bill was a terrible idea.
If passed it would have undermined Canada's economy, given more powers to union bosses to cripple key infrastructure industries and infringed on the individual rights of all unionized employees.
That's why the National Citizens Coalition ran a media ad campaign to oppose this disaster in the making.
It's a good victory for the NCC and a victory for Canada.
Last night MPs voted down Bill C-257, which would have made it a crime for companies to hire replacement workers during a strike.
Simply put this Bill was a terrible idea.
If passed it would have undermined Canada's economy, given more powers to union bosses to cripple key infrastructure industries and infringed on the individual rights of all unionized employees.
That's why the National Citizens Coalition ran a media ad campaign to oppose this disaster in the making.
It's a good victory for the NCC and a victory for Canada.
Wednesday, March 21, 2007
Blackout Ruling Skewered
Bob Tarantino, who happens to be a lawyer, has an excellent legal analysis of last's weeks horrid Supreme Court ruling on the election black out law.
Key quote: "The majority decision is so poorly reasoned it almost beggars belief."
Key quote: "The majority decision is so poorly reasoned it almost beggars belief."
More Budget talk
I'm going to be a guest on the Rogers Cable TV Show Money Line tonight at 7:30 PM to discuss the federal budget with Toronto Sun business editor Linda Leatherdale.
Oh and here's more evidence the federal budget was a train wreck: Sheila Copps liked it.
Oh and here's more evidence the federal budget was a train wreck: Sheila Copps liked it.
Tuesday, March 20, 2007
Discussing the Budget with Duffy
Here's me on Mike Duffy Live this afternoon.I was discussing the federal budget with Tasha Kheiriddin. She thinks it's a smart political budget; I hate it.
You can see the segment here.
(Click the tab marked "Are the Tories Moving Left?")
Budget Reaction (It's Bad)
Some reactions to the budget:
"The $200-billion in program spending Mr. Flaherty has budgeted for this year works out to about $5,800 for every man, woman and child in Canada. Even adjusting for inflation and increases in population, that’s more than Paul Martin spent in his frantic last hours. It is more than the Mulroney government spent in its last days. It is more than the Trudeau government spent in the depths of the early 1980s recession. All of these past benchmarks of out-of-control spending must now be retired. Jim Flaherty has outdone them all." -- Andrew Coyne, the National Post.
"This (the budget) is so Liberal, the Grits should sue for breach for copyright" --- John Ibbitson, the Globe and Mail
"The federal budget delivered Monday by Finance Minister Jim Flaherty was conservative in name only. It increases the size and scope of activity undertaken by the federal government and relies largely on a host of activist economic policies rather than focusing on creating the right environment to encourage economic activity." -- Niels Veldhuis and Jason Clemens, the Fraser Institute.
Media Alert: I am going to appear on the Newsworld Program, Today this afternoon to discuss the budget.
Media Alert II: Will be on Mike Duffy Live to discuss the budget at 5:20 PM EST.
"The $200-billion in program spending Mr. Flaherty has budgeted for this year works out to about $5,800 for every man, woman and child in Canada. Even adjusting for inflation and increases in population, that’s more than Paul Martin spent in his frantic last hours. It is more than the Mulroney government spent in its last days. It is more than the Trudeau government spent in the depths of the early 1980s recession. All of these past benchmarks of out-of-control spending must now be retired. Jim Flaherty has outdone them all." -- Andrew Coyne, the National Post.
"This (the budget) is so Liberal, the Grits should sue for breach for copyright" --- John Ibbitson, the Globe and Mail
"The federal budget delivered Monday by Finance Minister Jim Flaherty was conservative in name only. It increases the size and scope of activity undertaken by the federal government and relies largely on a host of activist economic policies rather than focusing on creating the right environment to encourage economic activity." -- Niels Veldhuis and Jason Clemens, the Fraser Institute.
Media Alert: I am going to appear on the Newsworld Program, Today this afternoon to discuss the budget.
Media Alert II: Will be on Mike Duffy Live to discuss the budget at 5:20 PM EST.
Monday, March 19, 2007
Budget Blues
Somebody remind me again, who is running the federal government, Conservatives or Liberals?
I have to ask because today's budget sure looks like something the Liberals or maybe even the NDP could have concocted.
Yes, there were some targeted tax cuts for families and a few tax changes to help business, but overall this budget was all about one thing: SPENDING.
Conservatives were supposed to CUT spending; not increase it.
You can see the NCC news release on the budget here.
But what really gets me about today's budget speech is Finance Minister Jim Flaherty's comment about providing more funding to the Canada Revenue Agency to ensure "every company pays its fair share of tax."
Since when do Conservatives want to increase the government's efficiency when it comes to collecting taxes?
They have a $13 billion surplus for Pete's sake, isn't that enough?!
Talk about greedy.
Maybe it's time the Tories forgot about the politics and re-focused on the ideology.
They certainly need a refresher course in Conservatism 101.
Update:
Financial Post editor Terence Corcoran has more.
I have to ask because today's budget sure looks like something the Liberals or maybe even the NDP could have concocted.
Yes, there were some targeted tax cuts for families and a few tax changes to help business, but overall this budget was all about one thing: SPENDING.
Conservatives were supposed to CUT spending; not increase it.
You can see the NCC news release on the budget here.
But what really gets me about today's budget speech is Finance Minister Jim Flaherty's comment about providing more funding to the Canada Revenue Agency to ensure "every company pays its fair share of tax."
Since when do Conservatives want to increase the government's efficiency when it comes to collecting taxes?
They have a $13 billion surplus for Pete's sake, isn't that enough?!
Talk about greedy.
Maybe it's time the Tories forgot about the politics and re-focused on the ideology.
They certainly need a refresher course in Conservatism 101.
Update:
Financial Post editor Terence Corcoran has more.
Budget Fun
The best part about this afternoon's budget won't be the actual budget, but the Opposition Parties reaction to it.
The Opposition doesn't want an election right now, so there is no way they will vote against the government's fiscal plan, no matter how much they might hate it.
Consequently, the NDP, the Bloc, the Liberals will all have to pretend to like something -- anything -- in the budget.
The fun part will be watching them grit their teeth as they say nice things about the Tory plan.
This is where the spin doctors earn their money.
The Opposition doesn't want an election right now, so there is no way they will vote against the government's fiscal plan, no matter how much they might hate it.
Consequently, the NDP, the Bloc, the Liberals will all have to pretend to like something -- anything -- in the budget.
The fun part will be watching them grit their teeth as they say nice things about the Tory plan.
This is where the spin doctors earn their money.
Saturday, March 17, 2007
Me on CBC
I am scheduled to appear on the CBC Newsworld program Weekend Edition to talk about my recent oped column in the Globe and Mail.
That's the one where I take the Harper government to task for its recent massive spending binge.
They tell me my segment will be air sometime after Noon EST - so adjust your schedule accordingly.
Update: My appearance on Newsworld has been rescheduled to between 3:00 and 3:30 PM EST.
Update II: Now I am not sure if I will ever be on Newsworld -- I may have been bumped, which is real nice since I gave up a restful Sunday morning to be on the show!!!
Update III: OK time to relax. I was just on. Phew.
That's the one where I take the Harper government to task for its recent massive spending binge.
They tell me my segment will be air sometime after Noon EST - so adjust your schedule accordingly.
Update: My appearance on Newsworld has been rescheduled to between 3:00 and 3:30 PM EST.
Update II: Now I am not sure if I will ever be on Newsworld -- I may have been bumped, which is real nice since I gave up a restful Sunday morning to be on the show!!!
Update III: OK time to relax. I was just on. Phew.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)
