Wednesday, November 08, 2006

Survey: Why GOP Lost in '06, Who Could Win in '08

The American polling firm McLaughlin and Associates has released some striking numbers gleaned from U.S. midterm election night.

"The American people voted not to create change in Washington", says the pollster, "but to vent their frustration with a Republican leadership that has let them down. Key segments of the Republican coalition that has dominated for the past 6 years have left the party in 2006. Among our results":

-- Giuliani, McCain, Clinton, Obama lead in their parties 2008 primaries.

-- Both Giuliani & McCain beat Clinton in 2008 general match-ups.

-- Independents are more likely to vote like Democrats this year.

-- Congressional Republicans lost among moderates, rural voters and Evangelical men.

-- Congressional Republicans barely won churchgoers, tied in the suburbs.

-- Women are more likely to vote Republican than men.

-- Republicans had momentum in the final weeks, as they won among voters who make decisions in the last two weeks and on Election Day.

-- George W. Bush, Reid, Pelosi all have net-negative opinion ratings.


In a hypothetical 2008 Republican presidential primary, John McCain and Rudy Giuliani led the potential field, with Condoleezza Rice, Mitt Romney and Newt Gingrich filling out second and third tiers.

In the Democratic primary, Hillary Clinton dominated all others by 12 points, followed by Barack Obama, Al Gore, John Kerry and John Edwards.

When Independents are added to the primary electorate, however, Clinton's lead over Obama is cut to only 6 points.

GOP Primary: John McCain 26%Rudy Giuliani 22%Condoleezza Rice 12%Mitt Romney 4%Newt Gingrich 4%

Dem Primary:Hillary Clinton 27%Barack Obama 21%Al Gore 9%John Kerry 8%John Edwards 7%

The two leading Republican presidential contenders have decisive leads over Hillary Clinton.

In these match-ups, John McCain does better among moderates than Rudy Giuliani.

John McCain 51%Hillary Clinton 35%Undecided 13% Rudy Giuliani 51%Hillary Clinton 37%Undecided 12%

For more detailed information and breakdowns from this interesting survey go here.

1 comment:

Anonymous said...

The notion that a person's voting behaviour may change due to frustration with leadership is absolutely correct. And, I would add, not only voting behaviour but even party membership. When too much of political (conservative) values are given up in the attempt to win votes, the result is that the authenticity of the party is lost and that opens the door to voters searching for alternatives that they can believe it. Most voters do not believe in politicians at all really. Many citizens are so disgusted that they even stop voting. The general position is why vote at all, politicians do not serve the people, they are just politicians (which is generally not seen as a favorable title). Vision, authenticity, and commitment to serve the people is the pre-requisite of a people's trust in any leader or any party. Do we have that in any Canadian leader? And in Quebec, I would add, compassion (real human care) and eccentricity (uniqueness) are in keeping with what Quebecers feel about their distinctness as a society.