Tuesday, October 24, 2006

Ontarians Want Change?

There's an interesting poll on the Ontario political scene that seems to contradict itself.

The poll says the Ontario Liberals have a sizable lead (41-34) over the Progressive Conservatives but that 47 percent of Ontarians also believe it's time for a change in government.

How can this be?

Well the short answer is Ontario voters do want a change, but they don't see PC leader John Tory as representing change.

And no wonder.

Tory has done little to distinguish his party from the Dalton McGuinty Liberals in terms of policies.

So the voters are likely saying, if we have to choose between a real Liberal Party and a pseudo-Liberal Party, might as well choose the real deal.

3 comments:

Brian said...

if we have to choose between a real Liberal Party and a pseudo-Liberal Party, might as well choose the real deal.

Everytime! You forgot to add the word everytime. The political landscape is littered with the corpses of Conservatives who thought they couldn't win as conservatives. Ernie Eves, Joe Clarke, Jean Charest &tc.

Conservatives only chance of winning is when popular opinion is that they have no chance of winning because they are too conservative.

Hoodwinked said...

Typical Ontario-style inspiration for continuing voter apathy. Hope there's a good movie playing on election night.

Miles Lunn said...

The reason 47% say it is time for change, while the PCs are only at 34% is you forget to mention the 47% probably includes some dippers.

I don't believe running further to the right wins elections. That has not been the case here in Canada. Mike Harris won in reaction to Bob Rae's disastrous reign however, I believe had Jim Flaherty as opposed to Eves been leader in 2003, the Ontario PCs would have done even worse. If anything Harper's unpopularity is probably dragging John Tory down.

Finally Ontario 80% of the time goes for the opposite party in power federally so if the Liberals return to power before October 2007, John Tory will probably win, but if Harper is still PM by October 2007, than McGuinty will probably be re-elected. That was partly why Mike Harris won two back to back elections is Ontarioans generally sit in between the Liberals and Tories so they like one in power federally and the other provincially. I myself plan to vote Liberal next federal election, but PC provincially.