While at the Ontario Conservative Party convention a few weeks ago, I asked a delegate if he thought John Tory would win his by-election contest.
"Oh yes," replied the delegate. "We could run a scarecrow in that riding and win."
Well maybe Tory needed more straw, because he lost.
So what happened?
The likely answer is Tory simply didn't excite the party's grassroots base. And unexcited, unmotivated voters, sometimes don't bother to vote.
That's a lesson the federal Conservatives should heed.