Sunday, May 01, 2011

Election Prediction

Here's my prediction of the final seat count when all the election dust has settled:

Conservatives -157

NDP - 85

Liberals -  56

Bloc - 10

Green - 0

Please note, the recent Jack Layton "massage scandal" is a variable that could mess this up. My sense is it will help boost the NDP, while hurting the Conservatives.

How much is anyone's guess.


Anonymous said...

I hope that you are right.

Paradoxically, the better the Libs do(in seats)the more likely it will be a Conservative majority IMO.

Ontario tells all, as far as maj. vs min.

Anonymous said...

Kasha from the National Post got it out this morning on CBC that it was the LIBERAL party, 2 years ago, looking into the Layton porn scandal.The media have been doing a good job on covering up the total one said Layton was on a bed naked and the issue of the wet tissue.Layton using the word "WE" pretending it was him and Olivia going for a massage,and the police telling them it was a suspect masage place so they left. LIAR. Someone sneaking around in the dark shadows of the night and visiting a whorehouse for underage giels is a disgusting disgrace and not someone worthy of being a PM. Anyone who votes for this type of behavior will regret having this tax and spend , economy damaging coalition. Layton is unethical and deserves nothing but "CONTEMPT" from the Canadian voters. The media are a sad, sorry bunch for letting this happen by being so untruthful. I hope your prediction holds true. I still have faith in the ethics of the Canadian people who are educated on the real FACTS and not pie in the sky BS.

Blame Crash said...

Regardless of who it hurts or helps, it's more important that people know what a lying, cheating, slithers slime ball that Layton really is. This story will not be ending with this election. It's just getting started.

Besides, the "did it hurt or help" narrative will never be known because it's unknowable. Although that will not stop those who want to spin it their way.

Anonymous said...

Gerry the Liberals released that scandal about Layton
do you want a Prime Minister that has put himself in the position of blackmail by the criminal element of our society
It has been suggested that there may be a video of Layton's activity at that community clinic
just saying

L said...

Hope so, but I think conservatives may be closer to 150, and the NDP a bit lower.

mikey d said...

If true that story should be checked out big time.

Anonymous said...

Gerry Nicholls,

You make no sense. Why would the recent revelation of Layton's sex scandal boost the NDP, huh?

To wit, marginal voters, and there are many of them, will most likely vote Conservative. Moreover, either the Librals or the Separatists are the more probable source behind the 'leaked' scandal.

Sure, the leftist media would like the electorate to believe that the Conservatives engineered the smear campaign against the socialists- no surprise there.


Your comments scream loudly:

You're either a closet Libral or even Socialist sympathizer.

Give me a break- pluuuueese!

Anonymous said...

My forecast:

PC- 160

Libs- 84

Soc- 42

Sep- 20

Gre- 2

Vinny, knows the best.

Rich said...

Bingo, I think the author's projection is right on the money!

Anonymous said...

CPC 138

See ya

Anonymous said...

If CPC looses on Monday:

Liz J said...

Hope you are right on this one Gerry.

If the Conservatives don't get a majority we have one hell of a stupid electorate.

Gerry Nicholls said...

Yes, anon: 11:29 I am definitely a socialist sympathizer.

BTW polls today show the scandal has given Layton a boost.

So I guess the pollsters are socialists too!

Anonymous said...

((If the Conservatives don't get a majority we have one hell of a stupid electorate.))

ain't it the truth

that is what will destroy democracies in the end

Anonymous said...

Uh, Gerry...

Polls don't mean nothing. I don't pay attention to them.

- George Dubya Bush.

Anonymous said...

If it's proven that the Liberals fed this story to the Sun the Libs are in for a world of hurt on Monday.

The timing of this story disgusts many voters more than the story itself. Kleenex-gate is at best a break even for Layton haters.

Anonymous said...

Rich said:

Bingo, I think Vinny's projection is right on the money!



Gerry, on the other hand, should have given up predictions, last lent.

He's out to/for lunch.

Anonymous said...

Mistakes by the conservatives in this election: 1. Making the election campaign too short, another two weeks would see the conservatives in majority territory. 2. Not having a policy to address the Quebec Question. 3. Not confronting the media about bias from day one. 4. Spending too much time talking about the possible coalition.. instead of selling this government to the electorate. 5. Harper not going to the royal wedding. 6. Not telling the public that the NDP could at best field a rookie government at a time when we need experts to save the economy. Prediction: 153 seats conservatives, rest split in any way, it does not matter. (real conservative)

Anonymous said...

So, you're a Libral.

Now, follow your own advice-



Anonymous said...

What are your thoughts in the case of a Conservative Minority with an NDP opposition? Becoming official opposition would be a huge step in itself for the NDP. One that they would have to "acclimatize" to seeing they have so many neophyte members who are currently working in restaurants, are students and the like. Would they take the step of taking down the government and trying to run with a rag-tag coalition or would they take a longer-term view and build themselves as a credible opposition with an eye on defeating the government themselves in the next election?

Would the Liberals even want to support the NDP as the smaller part of a coalition thereby confirming the NDP are their new Socialist overlords? Or would the Liberals say we will support the Conservatives for the time being while we rebuild because we don't trust in the NDP vision for Canada?

So many possibilities.

Anonymous said...


Here's what I really think:

The conservatives will win the election tomorrow, AND with a majority too- 160 seats.

That means, there will be no official opposition status for Jiggy-jig Layton and his comrade socialists.

Who ever believes that probability is spouting leftist, media inspired poppycock.

Get a grip...

Think positive...


Yeah, baby!

Thucydides said...

CPC in the high 140's low 150's but no majority.

"Blue" Liberals caucus as independents and support the CPC to prevent an NDP coalition: the Coalition of the Winners!

NDP and Liberals with similar seat counts; LPC knocked out of serious contention due to internal leadership battles breaking out (Bob Rae vs Entitled to their Entitlement challengers from Quebec, followers of the Young Dauphin and other factions all in a big furball)

BQ still an active force in the House but much reduced, 0 Greens

Anonymous said...

Hey, Gerry.

No changing your prediction now before the election concludes, ya hear!

I know you are not tempted.

Wink! Wink!

Anonymous said...

Gerry, buddy ol'pal.

Your numbers don't add up; neither did mine (almost a libral and pinko equate to the same sad socialist in my play book).

However, I did predict a PC majority and Harper victory, big time!

No worries, I'll still doff my cap to you and would even buy you a conciliatory pint of stout.

Just remember: Polls don't mean shite. And that's no chit!

Rich said...

My post above was not about Vinnie; it was about the blog's author/owner.
THAT was right on the money.
Well done to the CPC.

Anonymous said...

Hey Richie,

Obviously, you can't read (or SPELL).

The author, Gerry, forecasted a minority government- DUH!

Math is not your strong suite either.

On the other hand, Vinny predicted a PC MAJORITY!


Gerry, not so much; he's not so smart either.

Anonymous said...


We'll split the difference:

I will give you one Green; call it square!