Yesterday on the Caldwell Account, I predicted the Conservatives would win a majority government.
I told the same thing to the Ottawa Hill Times, when they requested my prediction for next week's paper.
In fact, I have been calling for a Conservative majority since February.
Mind you, February is a long time ago and the situation since then has, of course, changed dramatically.
For one thing, there is the little matter of the utter and complete collapse of both the Bloc Quebecois and the Liberal Party.
This has triggered an unprecedented surge of support for the (gulp) NDP.
What does this mean for the election?
Short answer: nobody knows.
But I suspect it means the Tories will go from a comfortable to a slim majority.
Here's how I figure it. A stronger NDP means the Tories will lose seats in the Maritimes, Quebec and British Columbia.
But NDP strength means the Conservatives will win a bucket-full of seats from the Liberals in Ontario -- enough for that slim majority.
Could I be wrong?
This is just an educated guess.
There are just too many unknown variables out there for me to predict with any real certainty.
The biggest variable will be what is on the minds of voters on May 2nd.
If they wake up in the morning in a risk-averse mood, they will vote Conservative; if, on the other hand, the election has turned into a popularity contest, they will vote NDP.
Simply put, Jack Layton is more likable than Stephen Harper.
I'm betting status-quo beats personality.
Still, many other scenarios are also possible including the nightmare of "Prime Minister Jack Layton."
By the way, in the past I have criticized the Tory strategy of pushing the "Reckless Coalition" angle, a tactic which could now very well backfire.
After all, the Tories made the election a stark choice between "Us or The Coalition," meaning they made it legitimate for the Opposition to pursue that course.
But I digress.
The point is, the NDP now poses a serious threat to the Conservatives.
If this were an ideological race, one pitting a pro-free market, pro-small government, fiscally responsible Conservative Party against a socialist NDP, the Tories would win easily.
But the Conservatives forsook their ideology for the sake of power.
If the Tories do end up losing, that could make the outcome sort of ironic.