Friday, April 29, 2011

My best guess

Yesterday on the Caldwell Account, I predicted the Conservatives would win a majority government.

I told the same thing to the Ottawa Hill Times, when they requested my prediction for next week's paper.

In fact, I have been calling for a Conservative majority since February.

Mind you, February is a long time ago and the situation since then has, of course, changed dramatically.

For one thing, there is the little  matter of the utter and complete collapse of both the Bloc Quebecois and the Liberal Party.

This has triggered an unprecedented surge of support for the (gulp) NDP.

What does this mean for the election?

Short answer: nobody knows.

But I suspect it means the Tories will go from a comfortable to a slim majority.

Here's how I figure it.  A stronger NDP means the Tories will lose seats in the Maritimes, Quebec and British Columbia.

But NDP strength means the Conservatives will win a bucket-full of seats from the Liberals in Ontario -- enough for that slim majority.

Could I be wrong?

Absolutely.

This is just an educated guess.

There are just too many unknown variables out there for me to predict with any real certainty.

The biggest variable will be what is on the minds of voters on May 2nd.

If they wake up in the morning in a risk-averse mood, they will vote Conservative; if, on the other hand, the election has turned into a popularity contest, they will vote NDP.

Simply put, Jack Layton is more likable than Stephen Harper.

I'm betting status-quo beats personality.

Still, many other scenarios are also possible including the nightmare of "Prime Minister Jack Layton."

By the way, in the past I have criticized the Tory strategy of pushing the "Reckless Coalition" angle, a tactic which could now very well backfire.

After all, the Tories made the election a stark choice between "Us or The Coalition," meaning they made it legitimate for the Opposition to pursue that course.

But I digress.

The point is, the NDP now poses a serious threat to the Conservatives.

If this were an ideological race, one pitting a pro-free market, pro-small government, fiscally responsible Conservative Party against a socialist NDP, the Tories would win easily.

But the Conservatives forsook their ideology for the sake of power.

If the Tories do end up losing, that could make the outcome sort of ironic.

9 comments:

Anonymous said...

The Tories have not been Conservatives as the size of government and debt swells up when they are in power. This is not my view of being a Conservative which is first and foremost to be a smaller government with less cost.

wilson said...

It was important to flush Iffy out on the coalition, the CPC may have been going for a shift, but instead got a realignment on Canada's left.

Tho no one could have seen how huge that realignement was going to be,
perhaps the writting was on the wall with Jack's leadership numbers soaring in week 3.

CPC still higher in Ontario than in 2008

Anonymous said...

The national numbers mean squat.


Ontario numbers are all over the place so some should be dismissed. The question is which ones?

A rise but not a surge for the NDP in Ontario will play in the Tories favour quite nicely.

I think the Tories will finish about where they are right now.(strong minority)

As for the Libs; All bets are off. They could end up rather resilient and hang on to the official opposition or they might be almost wiped out outside of the 416.

Peter said...

Dear "Anonymous". It is attitudes like that which result in a socialist government, the collapse of the Canadian economy and and the breakup of the country. Swallow your "purist" stand and vote for the Conservatives so Canadians can have a future.

delshilo said...

well, Mr. Nichols, EKOS seat projection for April 29 somewhat agrees with you. Even CPC at a low 34% and with the Libs at 20% it means that the vote breaks with the CPC. Although it means an increased minority it also suggests the CPC could sneak in the backdoor with a Majority.

Cytotoxic said...

Dear Peter: it is attitudes like yours that lead to the destruction of Canada's Right and creeping socialism. Your strategy simply has not worked anywhere. Please take your partisan trash to somebody whose interested.

Gordie_Canuk said...

I think the biggest factor will be voter turnout, especially in seat rich Ontario. If as many people stay home as did in the last election, then I'd bet on a solid majority. If voter turn out gets up to 60% or so then I'm betting on 'too close to call'....70% or more, and I think it'll mean Canadians have opted for what Harper calls a reckless coalition.

john said...

On Monday, Canadians will tell Stephen Harper that we don't want an American Republican President wannabe like him. We want a Canadian Prime Minister and want absolutely nothing to do with anything even slightly resembling the United States. Those of you who want to align with the United States, get out of Canada and live there. We the Canadian people, are going to take our Canadian Government back from Harper and his Presidency and Republican-like ties.

Atlanta Roofing said...

Truthfully, I'd like to see the NDP get a crack as the official opposition. I'm curious to see how and where they would make concessions on their ideologies, as is necessary when applying ideals to practical situations. I'm not especially hopeful, but I am curious.