Wednesday, February 25, 2009

Obama's Prospects

Went to a "LunchnLearn" lecture yesterday at the University of Toronto.

The guest speaker was businessman and writer Theo Caldwell, who addressed the topic:
"President Obama: His Prospects for Hope and Harmony with a Democratic Congress."

Caldwell predicts, the president will have neither hope nor harmony.

He says it's just the nature of the American political system: the president must look at the national stage, while Congress focuses on regional, state or district concerns.

This inevitably leads to conflict and tension, even when you have a Democratic president and a Democratic Congress.

Add an economic recession into the mix and you have even more tension and conflict.

Where will this all lead?

Well, Caldwell guesses you will see a Republican resurgence in the 2010 Congressional elections, with perhaps the GOP winning the House of Representatives.

This, in turn, could lead disenchanted Democrats to blame Obama for their woes, which in turn could lead to a primary challenge in 2012.

Who would possibly challenge Obama? Who knows, but I bet her name rhymes with Billary.

And says Caldwell, American presidents who are seriously challenged in primaries usually lose the general election.

So get ready for a Republican president in 2012.

Mind you, this is all a guess.

5 comments:

NorthernRaven said...

Watch out for Newt Gingrich making a move to run in 2012. This former speaker of the House of Representatives has been out passionately advocting for a new contract with America, bringing forward his fiscal Conservative views.

Hopefully if the Republicans gain control of the House in 2010, then Fiscal Conservatism will win over Social Conservatism.

Anonymous said...

I think we'll all bleed until fiscal conservatism makes it's resurgence.

Mark Francis said...

If the last eight years of Republican rule is any indication, fiscal conservatism has been redefined as fiscal idiocy.

Advocating tax cuts, on top of increases military spending and foreign interventionist policy, along with a current structural deficit and underfunded future liabilities, is just plain stupid... but it's what the republicans have been advocating and doing for years.

Even a President firmly in favour of tight control over spending will likely fail, just as Reagan failed.

Patrick Ross said...

Increasing spending while cutting taxes isn't really fiscal conservatism, now is it, Mark?

If anything, maybe half of a properly conservative fiscal program is there. But not the important part of it.

Red Tory said...

Amazing. The guy has been in office for just slightly over a month and already you're having wet dreams about a Republican renaissance in the next two election cycles. Dream on, Gerry... Dream on.