Saturday, April 30, 2011
Friday, April 29, 2011
Election Equation
To help voters better understand the possible outcomes of the May 2nd election, I have prepared the following mathematical model incorporating all possible variables.
Hope this clears things up.
Media Alert
I am scheduled to be a guest today on the Murray Langdon Show (CFAX radio Victoria) to discuss non-Royal Wedding news.
My best guess
Yesterday on the Caldwell Account, I predicted the Conservatives would win a majority government.
I told the same thing to the Ottawa Hill Times, when they requested my prediction for next week's paper.
In fact, I have been calling for a Conservative majority since February.
Mind you, February is a long time ago and the situation since then has, of course, changed dramatically.
For one thing, there is the little matter of the utter and complete collapse of both the Bloc Quebecois and the Liberal Party.
This has triggered an unprecedented surge of support for the (gulp) NDP.
What does this mean for the election?
Short answer: nobody knows.
But I suspect it means the Tories will go from a comfortable to a slim majority.
Here's how I figure it. A stronger NDP means the Tories will lose seats in the Maritimes, Quebec and British Columbia.
But NDP strength means the Conservatives will win a bucket-full of seats from the Liberals in Ontario -- enough for that slim majority.
Could I be wrong?
Absolutely.
This is just an educated guess.
There are just too many unknown variables out there for me to predict with any real certainty.
The biggest variable will be what is on the minds of voters on May 2nd.
If they wake up in the morning in a risk-averse mood, they will vote Conservative; if, on the other hand, the election has turned into a popularity contest, they will vote NDP.
Simply put, Jack Layton is more likable than Stephen Harper.
I'm betting status-quo beats personality.
Still, many other scenarios are also possible including the nightmare of "Prime Minister Jack Layton."
By the way, in the past I have criticized the Tory strategy of pushing the "Reckless Coalition" angle, a tactic which could now very well backfire.
After all, the Tories made the election a stark choice between "Us or The Coalition," meaning they made it legitimate for the Opposition to pursue that course.
But I digress.
The point is, the NDP now poses a serious threat to the Conservatives.
If this were an ideological race, one pitting a pro-free market, pro-small government, fiscally responsible Conservative Party against a socialist NDP, the Tories would win easily.
But the Conservatives forsook their ideology for the sake of power.
If the Tories do end up losing, that could make the outcome sort of ironic.
I told the same thing to the Ottawa Hill Times, when they requested my prediction for next week's paper.
In fact, I have been calling for a Conservative majority since February.
Mind you, February is a long time ago and the situation since then has, of course, changed dramatically.
For one thing, there is the little matter of the utter and complete collapse of both the Bloc Quebecois and the Liberal Party.
This has triggered an unprecedented surge of support for the (gulp) NDP.
What does this mean for the election?
Short answer: nobody knows.
But I suspect it means the Tories will go from a comfortable to a slim majority.
Here's how I figure it. A stronger NDP means the Tories will lose seats in the Maritimes, Quebec and British Columbia.
But NDP strength means the Conservatives will win a bucket-full of seats from the Liberals in Ontario -- enough for that slim majority.
Could I be wrong?
Absolutely.
This is just an educated guess.
There are just too many unknown variables out there for me to predict with any real certainty.
The biggest variable will be what is on the minds of voters on May 2nd.
If they wake up in the morning in a risk-averse mood, they will vote Conservative; if, on the other hand, the election has turned into a popularity contest, they will vote NDP.
Simply put, Jack Layton is more likable than Stephen Harper.
I'm betting status-quo beats personality.
Still, many other scenarios are also possible including the nightmare of "Prime Minister Jack Layton."
By the way, in the past I have criticized the Tory strategy of pushing the "Reckless Coalition" angle, a tactic which could now very well backfire.
After all, the Tories made the election a stark choice between "Us or The Coalition," meaning they made it legitimate for the Opposition to pursue that course.
But I digress.
The point is, the NDP now poses a serious threat to the Conservatives.
If this were an ideological race, one pitting a pro-free market, pro-small government, fiscally responsible Conservative Party against a socialist NDP, the Tories would win easily.
But the Conservatives forsook their ideology for the sake of power.
If the Tories do end up losing, that could make the outcome sort of ironic.
Thursday, April 28, 2011
Media Alert
Am scheduled to be a guest this morning on The Brent Loucks Show (AM 650 Saskatoon) at 10:15 AM.
Wednesday, April 27, 2011
The Political Answer Man
In just a few days Canadians will once again vote in a federal election.
I say "once again" because since 2004 Canadians have been forced to endure approximately 117 federal elections.
Or maybe it just seems that way.
Anyway, at least this election is different.
And by different, I mean it’s the first election in history a “just visiting” Liberal leader who “didn’t come back for us” is running against a Conservative leader who is “demanding absolute power” so he can destroy democracy and wreck health care.
A lot is at stake.
So not surprisingly, many Canadians are asking serious questions about the possible outcomes of the May 2nd vote.
For instance, one serious question I often hear is “When will this stupid, boring election be over?”
That’s why, to help sort things out, I have compiled a list of commonly asked questions for which, thanks to my many years of political experience, I can make up plausible-sounding answers:
Q. What happens if after Election Day no party wins the confidence of the House of Commons?
A. According to Canada’s constitution the Governor-General has the power to appoint any party leader Prime Minister through an ancient British practice commonly known as “The Eeeny-meeny-miny- moe” competition.
Q. If the Liberals lose what will happen to their leader Michael Ignatieff?
A. Ignatieff will step down as leader, but in the interest of continuity his eyebrows will be named Interim party leader.
Q. Will Green Party leader Elizabeth May finally win a seat to the House of Commons?
A. Ha, ha! Very funny, but please only serious questions.
Q. If Prime Minister Harper wins a majority will his governing style change?
A. Absolutely. In fact, he already has picked out a new official Prime Ministerial motto: “No more Mr. Nice Guy”.
Q. But will the Conservatives unleash their “hidden agenda” if they win a majority?
A. They can’t. After winning power in 2006, they hid their agenda so well nobody can find it, so it’s lost. The Conservatives have looked for it everywhere: under the bed, behind the filing cabinet, on the fridge. But nothing. Many believe the hidden agenda is buried somewhere in Tony Clement’s riding.
Q. What will be the first action the Conservatives will take if they win on May 2?
A. Prepare TV attack ads against whoever is the new Liberal leader.
Q. Is it possible NDP leader Jack Layton could be Canada’s next Prime Minster?
A. Yes. In fact, he has already written his victory speech. Here’s an excerpt: “Wow. I really didn’t think I would win … I’m serious. My policies are completely unworkable and unrealistic. They would wreck the country in a week. So, can we have a recount?”
Q. But what about the possibility of a “Coalition” government?
A. Ingatieff has been clear on this. He will never, ever, ever form a coalition government …. unless he does.
Q. When will the next federal election be called if we elect another minority government on May 2nd?
A. May 3rd.
Q. Isn’t everyone sick of elections?
A. We will keep having elections until the voters get it right!
Q. What about Gilles Duceppe and the Bloc, are they finished?
A. No. Back in 1867 the Fathers of Confederation decided Canada must always have at least one politician from Quebec to perform the crucial duty of annoying English Canadians.
OK, I hope this Q & A session makes the political situation a little clearer for everybody.
Of course, even I can’t answer the most important question that’s currently uppermost in the minds of most concerned Canadians: Who will win the Stanley Cup?
Monday, April 25, 2011
Media Alert 2
I am scheduled to be a guest on Power Play this evening between 8:30-9:00 PM ET to talk strategy.
Media Alert
Am scheduled to be a guest today on The Charles Adler Show at 2:30 PM ET to talk politics.
What this election lacks
Check out my latest Ottawa Hill Times column in which I lament this election's serious lack of sweaters.
Saturday, April 23, 2011
Twitterers beware
There are certain Twitterers who had better make sure Elections Canada is not on their followers list.
I am referring to those in the Twitterverse who plan to defy Canada's election law by posting real-time voting results on election night.
If they do so they will be violating Section 329 of the Canada Elections Act which prohibits the "premature transmission" of election results.
In other words, you can't reveal how Canadians have voted in a region where the polls are closed, to Canadians living in a region where the polls are still open.
And if anyone thinks violating this law is akin to a harmless prank, they better think again. The fact is the bureaucrats at Elections Canada enforce Section 329 with a Spanish-Inquisition like zealotry.
Just ask Paul Bryan.
Back in 2000 Paul, a British Columbia software developer, decided he would defy the law because he believed it infringed on free speech.
So, acting on principle, he posted real-time election results from Atlantic Canada on his website. This was back in the Stone Age era of the Internet when there was no Facebook, no Twitter, no Craigs List. (How did we survive?)
Please note, Paul didn't project winners. He didn't provide analysis. He simply gave British Columbians a chance to see how voters in Newfoundland were casting their ballots.
Elections Canada took notice of this egregious crime and took immediate action to safeguard democracy.
The next day they dispatched police to Paul's home and officially charged him with a crime. The police also seized his computer hard drive and other equipment.
Meanwhile, Stephen Harper, who back then was still president of the National Citizens Coalition, was outraged with the bullying ways of Elections Canada.
So the NCC took up Paul's cause and challenged the law in the courts.
Unfortunately, in an incredibly short-sighted ruling, the Supreme Court of Canada ruled against Paul and sided with Elections Canada, so the black out rule remains in effect.
Of course, it's a law which is now probably unenforceable. Modern communication technology has rendered it impossible to keep track of all possible violators.
As one of the lawyers arguing against Section 329 told the Supreme Court justices, "The only way to get fairness is to get rid of Section 329 or to shut the power off on election day so no one gets any results."
Of course, knowing how Elections Canada bureaucrats think, they might just decide to shut off the power, rather than allow free speech.
I am referring to those in the Twitterverse who plan to defy Canada's election law by posting real-time voting results on election night.
If they do so they will be violating Section 329 of the Canada Elections Act which prohibits the "premature transmission" of election results.
In other words, you can't reveal how Canadians have voted in a region where the polls are closed, to Canadians living in a region where the polls are still open.
And if anyone thinks violating this law is akin to a harmless prank, they better think again. The fact is the bureaucrats at Elections Canada enforce Section 329 with a Spanish-Inquisition like zealotry.
Just ask Paul Bryan.
Back in 2000 Paul, a British Columbia software developer, decided he would defy the law because he believed it infringed on free speech.
So, acting on principle, he posted real-time election results from Atlantic Canada on his website. This was back in the Stone Age era of the Internet when there was no Facebook, no Twitter, no Craigs List. (How did we survive?)
Please note, Paul didn't project winners. He didn't provide analysis. He simply gave British Columbians a chance to see how voters in Newfoundland were casting their ballots.
Elections Canada took notice of this egregious crime and took immediate action to safeguard democracy.
The next day they dispatched police to Paul's home and officially charged him with a crime. The police also seized his computer hard drive and other equipment.
Meanwhile, Stephen Harper, who back then was still president of the National Citizens Coalition, was outraged with the bullying ways of Elections Canada.
So the NCC took up Paul's cause and challenged the law in the courts.
Unfortunately, in an incredibly short-sighted ruling, the Supreme Court of Canada ruled against Paul and sided with Elections Canada, so the black out rule remains in effect.
Of course, it's a law which is now probably unenforceable. Modern communication technology has rendered it impossible to keep track of all possible violators.
As one of the lawyers arguing against Section 329 told the Supreme Court justices, "The only way to get fairness is to get rid of Section 329 or to shut the power off on election day so no one gets any results."
Of course, knowing how Elections Canada bureaucrats think, they might just decide to shut off the power, rather than allow free speech.
Friday, April 22, 2011
Media Alert
More evidence Sun News is just about pretty faces and beautiful bodies -- I am scheduled to be a guest today on The Caldwell Account.
Kinsella scaring the kids
A letter I wrote in response to this Warren Kinsella column was published in the Winnipeg Sun.
Here's the unedited version:
Dear Sir/Madam:
Given the recent Liberal scare tactics you would think we were nearing Halloween instead of Election Day.
Certainly, Warren Kinsella’s recent Sun column will keep the kids up at night.
A Conservative majority, it seems, will result in a nightmare Canada
Then there are the Liberals negative TV spots which are even scarier than the ads for Scream 4.
It’s all frightening stuff.
But, of course, all this fear-mongering is a pretty good sign that the ones who are really afraid of Election Day are the Liberals.
Tuesday, April 19, 2011
Media Alert
I am scheduled to be a guest on the Arlene Bynon Show (AM640 radio) to talk about Liberal ads.
Monday, April 18, 2011
Media Alert
Am scheduled to be a guest "strategist" on CTV's Power Play tonight at about 8:45 PM to talk politics.
My take on Liberal attack strategy
Check out my latest column in the Hill Times, where I discuss whether the recent Liberal attack ads are good political strategy or simply an act of desperation. (Note: it's behind a subscription wall.)
Also I am quoted on the same topic in this Hill Times article. (It's free!)
Saturday, April 16, 2011
Media Alert
I will be a guest this morning on The Weekend Morning News with Jill Bennett, (CKNW Radio Vancouver) at 10:30 AM.
Topic: Election
Topic: Election
Friday, April 15, 2011
Who do you most want to lose on May 2nd?
Getting quite a spirited reaction to my posting about which candidates I would like to see lose on Election Day.
So let's ask a more specific question: if some sort political genie granted you the power to make any one candidate lose, who would it be?
Remember, you only have one choice, but it can be anybody in the race.
So let's ask a more specific question: if some sort political genie granted you the power to make any one candidate lose, who would it be?
Remember, you only have one choice, but it can be anybody in the race.
Candidates who must lose
During elections people usually root for certain politicians to win; I, on the other hand, root for certain politicians to lose.
1. Julian Fantino – Be nice if voters deserted him the way he deserted home owners in Caledonia.
2. Bob Rae – Still don't think he has suffered enough for what he did to Ontario's economy.
3. Michael Ignatieff -- Actually I hope he loses for pity's sake. I mean, after his party gets trounced at the polls on May 2nd it would be so much easier for him to return to Harvard if he didn't have to worry about resigning his own seat.
4. Justin Trudeau – Obvious reasons. (Actually, I just put his name on this list to make my right-wing readers happy. Personally, I hope he wins because he provides Canadian politics with what it needs most these days-- comic relief.)
5. Elizabeth May – Her losing every election has become a Canadian tradition. Would hate to see it end.
6. Thomas Mulcair – The only thing worst than a socialist, is an overly ambitious socialist.
7. Ralph Goodale– I still hold a grudge against this guy for his promotion of Canada's Little Kremlin on the Prairie, otherwise know as the Canadian Wheat Board.
8. Mark Holland – Oh, he's just so smug!
9. Ken Dryden – For making politics as boring as hockey is exciting!
10. Linda Duncan -- A federal NDP MP in Alberta! It just doesn't make any sense.
OK, I've had my say, now it’s up to voters to act accordingly.
Yes, I know this reflects a bitter, cynical take on life, but hey it's a hobby.
Anyway, here's my list of candidates I would love to see lose on May 2nd:
1. Julian Fantino – Be nice if voters deserted him the way he deserted home owners in Caledonia.
2. Bob Rae – Still don't think he has suffered enough for what he did to Ontario's economy.
3. Michael Ignatieff -- Actually I hope he loses for pity's sake. I mean, after his party gets trounced at the polls on May 2nd it would be so much easier for him to return to Harvard if he didn't have to worry about resigning his own seat.
4. Justin Trudeau – Obvious reasons. (Actually, I just put his name on this list to make my right-wing readers happy. Personally, I hope he wins because he provides Canadian politics with what it needs most these days-- comic relief.)
5. Elizabeth May – Her losing every election has become a Canadian tradition. Would hate to see it end.
6. Thomas Mulcair – The only thing worst than a socialist, is an overly ambitious socialist.
7. Ralph Goodale– I still hold a grudge against this guy for his promotion of Canada's Little Kremlin on the Prairie, otherwise know as the Canadian Wheat Board.
8. Mark Holland – Oh, he's just so smug!
9. Ken Dryden – For making politics as boring as hockey is exciting!
10. Linda Duncan -- A federal NDP MP in Alberta! It just doesn't make any sense.
OK, I've had my say, now it’s up to voters to act accordingly.
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